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  #1  
Old 09-08-2008, 10:11 PM
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Question Gearing Up to Strike Iran

Gearing Up to Strike Iran


By P. David Hornik

According to a recent article (in Hebrew) in the Israeli daily Maariv, Israel’s top political and security officials have taken a decision to attack Iran’s nuclear program if nothing else is done to halt it.

Senior journalist Ben Caspit writes that “the debate between those who think everything must be done, including a military operation, to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb and those who think one can live with it, has been decided. If the Iranian regime doesn’t fall during the coming year, if the Americans don’t deliver a military blow and if the sanctions don’t break the Iranian nuclear program, Israel will have to take action. In other words: the preparations for an Israeli military option…are already underway.”


Caspit adds by way of explanation: “In the Tehran-Jerusalem-Washington triangle, things haven’t been going well. Israel is desperate to get American permission for an attack on Iran, but is not obtaining it…. The shortest flight route to Iran passes over Iraq, where the Americans are in control.”

Instead of the needed overflight codes, Caspit claims, the U.S. is offering Israel defensive radar—“‘We’ll help you defend yourselves, but we’ll prevent you from attacking,’ say the Americans.” That description dovetails with recent reports of opposition to a strike on Iran—Israeli or American—particularly by Defense Secretary Robert Gates, National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell, and Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Michael Mullen. A security source told Caspit that “the Americans have accepted a nuclear Iran and are trying to get us to accept it.” (Another report in the rumor mill has claimed the opposite—that the U.S. is itself preparing for a strike.)



In any case, Israel, according to Caspit, is not at all inclined to countenance a nuclear Iran, and former deputy defense minister Ephraim Sneh (now head of a new political party) has been especially active trying to get that point across. Caspit says Sneh sent a document to both U.S. presidential candidates, John McCain and Barack Obama, in which he stated: “No government in Jerusalem will accept a nuclear Iran. Once it is clear Iran is at the point of nuclearization, an Israeli military action to prevent it will be on the agenda.”


To avoid that, Sneh wrote to McCain and Obama, the time has come for an all-out U.S. effort to get Europe to cooperate in imposing “real” sanctions aimed at toppling the Iranian regime. Those sanctions, Sneh believes, would have to be a complete embargo on replacement parts for Iran’s oil and refined-oil industry and a total boycott of the Iranian banking system.


Apparently aware himself of how hard that would be to achieve, Sneh recently went to Switzerland and Austria—countries that, as Caspit notes, “have announced huge investments in Iranian gas and oil fields for the next decade.”


Caspit quotes Sneh as telling him that “words about a Holocaust of Jews or Israeli security don’t impress those folks.” So instead Sneh told them it was “too bad” about their investments, “because Iddo’s going to set it all on fire”—referring to recently appointed Israeli air force chief Iddo Nehushtan. “‘Investing in Iran in 2008,’ Sneh told the Austrians, ‘is like investing in the Krupp steelworks in 1938, a high-risk investment.’ The Austrians, according to Sneh, turned pale.”


Caspit goes on to mention assessments of the likely military response to an Israeli strike on Iran—not only from Iran itself but also from Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza with their stocks of thousands of missiles. It’s with this in mind, Caspit claims, that Olmert has been holding his talks with Syrian president Bashar Assad. Olmert, according to Caspit, has said in closed forums that “Assad is a smart, sober man…. He’s capable of restraint and doesn’t belong to the world of radical Islam.”

1. Caspit’s status and contacts as an Israeli journalist mean his report shouldn’t be taken lightly. Israel is indeed in political flux, with Olmert possibly facing indictment on corruption charges and his Kadima Party set to hold primaries in less than two weeks that may further lead to general elections. Caspit describes, however, a situation where alarm at Iran’s nuclear progress is predominant, with left-of-center Labor Party figures like Sneh and Defense Minister Ehud Barak among the most alarmed. And as if Israel’s political flux wasn’t enough, its leaders will naturally be watching keenly what happens on November 4 and—if there are still no major events in the security sphere by then—will see the situation as even more stark if the winner is someone who believes everyone is basically nice and just needs to be talked to.


2. Caspit describes the Israeli leaders as, albeit deeply concerned, having a time frame that may not be realistic. Britain’s Sunday Telegraph reports that both the U.S. and Israel now fear that Russia stands to supply the sophisticated S-300 air-defense system to Iran in retaliation for Washington supporting NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine. The S-300 is so effective that it’s said to be a “game-changer” that would rule out an Israeli raid and seriously complicate a U.S. attack. The system would take up to a year to become operational but the Israel sense of urgency would only be escalating.


3. It’s striking how loath even some Israelis like Sneh, who have no illusions about the Iranian threat, are to give up on the idea of concerted sanctions against Iran in which the Europeans would participate. In addition to Sneh’s Austrian and Swiss interlocutors, most recently Germany—led by the ostensibly conservative, pro-American Angela Merkel—has granted permission to the SPG engineering firm to build three plants in Iran for liquefying natural gas in a 100-million-euro deal. Even in the close-to-impossible scenario that Europe would at last sign on to severe sanctions, Iran’s friends outside the NATO sphere like Russia, China, and India would help it get past the rough patch.


4. Also striking is Olmert’s ongoing insistence on Assad’s reasonableness and potential benign role even in the aftermath of the Syrian leader’s trip to Moscow where he reportedly requested his own S-300 system as well as offensive weapons capable of affecting the Israeli-Syrian strategic balance. Olmert apparently is also not impressed by Assad’s praise for Russia’s invasion of Georgia and what that says about Assad’s geopolitical alignment. Although not shared by the current Bush administration, the belief in the Assad pere et fils regime’s pliability and openness to be enticed—with the Golan Heights—into the Western camp despite decades of drastic evidence to the contrary appears to be an incurable affliction.

5. Although current Israeli leaders Olmert, Barak, and Livni are aware of how badly Israel’s strategic position is complicated by the Hezbollah threat in Lebanon and the Hamas threat in Gaza, creating the possibility of a four-pronged missile barrage in addition to Syria and Iran, these leaders have not been able to draw the right conclusions or improve the situation. Despite frequent threats to act against Hamas, Barak has remained passive and has now grasped at the straw of a “ceasefire” in which Hamas is feverishly building its forces. It was largely Olmert and Livni’s bungling in the summer 2006 war that further empowered Hezbollah in Lebanon and since then they’ve done nothing to impede that process. Add this to the ongoing U.S. and Israeli impotence toward Syria, and U.S. and Western fecklessness toward Iran, and the situation is indeed acute.
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Old 09-08-2008, 11:57 PM
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You know Papa, Iran is going to get nuclear weapons sooner or later truthfully I don't think there is anything anyone can do about it. A strike on Iran will only play into the hands of those in power there. It will cement their power for the next 100 years and not make Israel any safer.
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Old 09-11-2008, 01:50 AM
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There is a fundamental difference between a nation like Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, and a nation like Russia, or China, or France, or the US possessing them. None of the latter nations has pledged a genocidal ambition to wipe its neighbor off the face of the earth. Iran has.

Under no circumstances can Iran be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. The weapons would go from Iranian hands, to Hezbollah or Hamas, leaving Iran to hide behind a veneer of "plausible deniability" while the terrorists detonated it in Tel Aviv. Iranian-Hezbollah complicity in the 1992 and 1994 Buenos Aires bombings should leave no shadow of a doubt regarding Iran's aims. By whatever means necessary, Iran must be prevented from developing nuclear arms. The price will be high, but it is doable.
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Old 09-11-2008, 07:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haamimhagolan View Post
There is a fundamental difference between a nation like Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, and a nation like Russia, or China, or France, or the US possessing them. None of the latter nations has pledged a genocidal ambition to wipe its neighbor off the face of the earth. Iran has.

Under no circumstances can Iran be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. The weapons would go from Iranian hands, to Hezbollah or Hamas, leaving Iran to hide behind a veneer of "plausible deniability" while the terrorists detonated it in Tel Aviv. Iranian-Hezbollah complicity in the 1992 and 1994 Buenos Aires bombings should leave no shadow of a doubt regarding Iran's aims. By whatever means necessary, Iran must be prevented from developing nuclear arms. The price will be high, but it is doable.
There seems to be far too little action on stopping Iran and now that USA's help will be very limited what is Israel to do?

USA is doing something financial to Iran (within USA). But nothing seems to be enough.
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Old 09-11-2008, 10:33 PM
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Lets give diplomacy every final chance. There are many Iranians in Iran who would support us come the day they are free. But blowing them up will destroy hearts even if the Mullahs deserve it.

The next President of the US should make this his priority, and before 4 years are out if nothing is done by Iran, then my friends time will be up!...as John McCain says.....bomb bomb them.......too bad! How sad!
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Old 09-12-2008, 03:08 AM
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Originally Posted by NEW RON View Post
Lets give diplomacy every final chance. There are many Iranians in Iran who would support us come the day they are free. But blowing them up will destroy hearts even if the Mullahs deserve it.

The next President of the US should make this his priority, and before 4 years are out if nothing is done by Iran, then my friends time will be up!...as John McCain says.....bomb bomb them.......too bad! How sad!
thats an interesting idea except for one crucial fact... our estimates are that iran will acquire a nuclear bomb or at least reach the point of no return in which even bombing them wouldnt make a difference, somewhere between teh end of 2008 and 2009...

making the bombing of irans nuclear facilities much more likely during the fall months of september through november... if soemthing is going to happen, its going to happen very soon... otherwise iran WILL acquire nuclear weapons..
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Old 09-12-2008, 11:02 AM
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Then the next President will have to act fast. If President Bush did something it would backfire as everybody hates him. (And yet he is the one who took on the terrorists.) Even republicans want to distance themselves from President Bush.

However the next President will have a fresh start, yes even though I dont want to sound like a war monger, I would support a bombing of all Iranian nuclear facilities as early as January 2009 if needed. Hopefully the intel is good, and we dont find out Iran had nothing all this time.

Iran needs to know that we take its threats against Israel seriously, and we believe the Iranian war mongers when they say they will wipe Israel of the face of the world.
If needed we will wipe parts of Iran off the face of the world as well.

As Paparock says, we could have turned Iran into the country that glows in the dark, but the US and west has chosen the wise channel of diplomacy first....second choice will be swift and easy.......too bad for Iran they had the chance to respect Israel !
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Old 09-12-2008, 05:42 PM
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Arrow U.S. nixed Israel's request for bunker-busters

U.S. nixed Israel's request for bunker-busters


The United States rejected a recent Israeli request for advanced detection systems as well as bunker-busters capable of locating and destroying Iranian nuclear weapons sites.

Israeli officials said the administration was persuaded by Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that such systems could be used to facilitate an Israeli air strike on Iran's nuclear weapons facilities.

"It [United States] does not see an action against Iran as the right thing to do at the moment," Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said.

Barak, who met senior administration officials in late July, appeared to confirm a report in the Israeli daily Haaretz on Aug. 13 that Washington refused Israel's request for the advanced U.S. systems. Haaretz also reported that the administration rejected an Israeli request to use Iraqi air space for an attack on Iran.

Al Arabiya is reporting the turn down


OCCUPIED JERUSALEM (AFP, AlArabiya.net)

The United States has turned down an Israeli request for "bunker buster" bombs and mid-air refueling planes for fear they could be used to attack Iran, according to the Israeli Haaretz newspaper.

The U.S. administration also refused to give permission for Israeli fighter jets to fly over Iraq -- the quickest route to Iran, it said.

Israel, the region's sole, though technically undeclared nuclear armed state, considers Iran its main strategic threat because of its own alleged atomic program, which Israel and its main U.S. ally suspect is aimed at developing weapons.

The U.S. National Intelligence Estimate, however, found that Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003.

Iran has repeatedly denied the allegations, insisting it wants only to provide electricity for its growing population when its fossil fuels run out.

Military experts believe the GBU-28 "bunker busters" Israel had requested could be effective against Iran's underground uranium enrichment facility at Natanz in central Iran.

The GBU-28 is a 2.2-ton, laser-guided, conventional munition equipped with a powerful warhead that can burrow through more than six meters (20 feet) of concrete and up to 30.5 meters (100 feet) of hard ground.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said after a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice last month that the United States "do not want, for the time being, any (military) action against Iran" but that Israel kept all options open.

While denying the requests for "bunker-buster" bombs and refueling planes, the U.S. administration has agreed to help reinforce Israel's defenses.

An advanced U.S. radar system is to be stationed in Israel which would double the 2,000-kilometer (1,250-mile) detection range of missiles launched from Iran.



Was the request really turned down???
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Last edited by Paparock; 09-12-2008 at 05:46 PM..
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Old 09-14-2008, 01:03 PM
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Thanks for the info Paparock.I swear I look at news everyday, and never get as much news as on this forum. lol I guess I i depend too much on TV for news. I must be old fashion :p Lets hope the request will be accepted eventually. Israel and America must stick together. Or else the enemies will have an advantage.
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Old 09-14-2008, 07:24 PM
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I read today that the request for GBU-39 are on their way to being apporoved.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull

Quote:
DoD approves sale of bunker buster missiles to Israel

By YAAKOV KATZ

The US Department of Defense has notified Congress of a potential sale of 1,000 smart bombs capable of penetrating underground bunkers to Israel, which would likely be used in the event of a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.

The notification of the possible sale to Congress was made over the weekend by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), the branch of the Pentagon responsible for evaluating foreign military sales.
Congress has 30 days to object the deal.
The deal is valued at $77 million and the principal contractor will be Boeing Integrated Defense Systems. The bomb which Israel has asked to procure is called the GBU-39, developed in recent years by the US as a small diameter bomb for low-cost, high-precision and low-collateral damage strikes.
In addition to the bomb, Israel has also asked for 150 mounting carriages, 30 guided test vehicles as well as two instructors to train the Israeli Air Force how to load the missiles on its aircraft.
The GPS-guided GBU-39 is said to be one of the most accurate bombs in the world and when installed on a 250 lb bomb has the same penetration capabilities as a 2000 lb bomb although with only 50 pounds of explosives. At just 5.9 feet long and 285 pounds, the small size of the bomb increases the number of weapons an aircraft can carry therefore raising the number of targets its can attack in a single sortie.


Tests conducted in the US have proven that the bomb is capable of penetrating at least three feet of steel reinforced concrete. The GBU-39 can be used in adverse weather conditions and has a standoff range of more than 60 nautical miles due to pop-out wings.
In its recommendation to Congress, the DSCA wrote that Israel's strategic position was "vital to the United States' interests throughout the Middle East."
"It is vital to the US national interests to assist Israel to develop and maintain a strong and ready self-defense capability. This proposed sale is consistent with those objectives," the statement read.
The DSCA announcement came amid growing concern in Israel that the Pentagon was not willing to sell Israel advanced military platforms such as bunker-buster missiles in an effort to dissuade Jerusalem from attacking Iran's nuclear facilities.
Bombs that can penetrate bunkers are a fundamental component of a potential airstrike against Iran since many of the nuclear facilities, such as the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, have been built in underground heavily fortified bunker facilities.
During the Second Lebanon War, Israel reportedly received an emergency shipment of bunker-buster missiles from the US to use to attack underground Hizbullah facilities.
Yiftah Shapir, from the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said the bomb was one of the most advanced in the world and would improve Israel's standoff fire capabilities.
"The bomb is extremely accurate," he said. "All you have to do is punch in the coordinates, fire and forget."
He said that the bomb could be used in an attack on Iranian underground facilities like Natanz but that their penetration capability was only a couple of meters. "Hundreds of these would have to be used in an attack on Natanz for it to be successful," he said.

Last edited by BrittleSteel; 09-14-2008 at 07:27 PM..
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Old 09-18-2008, 04:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariadne View Post
There seems to be far too little action on stopping Iran and now that USA's help will be very limited what is Israel to do?

USA is doing something financial to Iran (within USA). But nothing seems to be enough.
I am sure I have read that the US now has 3 super carrier battle groups in the gulf region as well as 2 USMC mini carrier amphibious battle groups. Last time the US had that much naval power in the gulf was the start of the Iraq war. Thats over 30 warships and subs and a larger air force then any nation in the mid east with the exception of maybe Israel within striking distance of Iran and the Straights of Hormuz.

It's anyones guess as to what is up, but something is up, as the US simply does not mass that amount of naval power anywhere EVER for any kind of training. Also F-22's out of Alaska have been reported as being over in Guam for the first time ever.. Along with their B2 cousins ;-) Hmmmm...... I'd be willing to bet all that firepower is there for 1 of 2 things. Either to assist Israel (if not simply do it alone) in an attack against Iran, or to put down any Iranain attempted retaliation or attempts to close the straights of hormuz after Israel attacks Iran.

Either way I bet before Bush leaves office, there is going to be an attack on Iran and US forces will no doubt be deep in it regardless of who actually leads it. November 5th seems like a logical date if ya ask me.

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Old 09-19-2008, 10:24 PM
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I hear you, Beazz. But I also remember this astute post by odie

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Originally Posted by odie072 View Post
I have no knowledge on this other than what I've read on the 'net, but the Northrop-Grumman KC-45 (based on the A330 Airbus) was just adopted as the US Air Force in-flight refueler. It beat out the Boeing KC-767 "hands down" and I'm wondering if it may have something to do with the refusal to approve the sale to Israel?? Like I said, I have no knowledge of this but just wondering if the Air Force has seen something they didn't like with Boeing and don't want to "pass it on" to Israel.

Here's the link:

http://www.americasnewtanker.com/

If Israel already has in-flight refuelers that could be used to refuel their aircraft, what difference would it make if it was the 767 or the 707??

Just thinking out loud.

One more thing. The US just sold F-16I's to Israel which has long range capability (from an added fuel tank) so that also doesn't make sense that they wouldn't want Israel to have long range aircraft.

odie072
As to the bunker buster bombs, well, Israel really is a world-class developer of missiles and other guided weapons. If the US refused to sell the bunker busters, it would not take Israel very long to produce its own version.

It is hard to decypher what is posturing, what is potentially disinformation, and what is really going on.

George Bush needs to decide if he will leave a nuclear Iran as part of his legacy.
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Old 09-27-2008, 03:45 AM
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Just to speculate out loud a bit . . .

Stealth aircraft would really be useful for an Israeli strike on Iran.

The very successful Israeli strike on the Syrian reactor occurred on or around 6 September 2007.

The first retirement of the F-117 Nighthawk occurred on 12 March 2007--about six months earlier.

I don't suppose there is any chance some of those F-117s made it into Israel's airforce ?
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Old 09-27-2008, 04:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpacemanSpiff View Post
Just to speculate out loud a bit . . .

Stealth aircraft would really be useful for an Israeli strike on Iran.

The very successful Israeli strike on the Syrian reactor occurred on or around 6 September 2007.

The first retirement of the F-117 Nighthawk occurred on 12 March 2007--about six months earlier.

I don't suppose there is any chance some of those F-117s made it into Israel's airforce ?

i highly doubt it.... the americans would hardly give away planes--not even to israel... not even to mention that 6 months is hardly enough time to train pilots to fly such a complex plane AND train for their mission (though im not a pilot, so ill leave the verdict to more knowledgable people than me)...

also, debkafile and other news reporting agencies have already reported that the strike was done by a group of f-15's (im prettys ure it was the f-15, though it could haev been the f-16) and they managed to sneak into Syrian territority undetected by getting mossad agents that infiltrated the Syrian air defence network to turn some of the systems off and also by using electronic warfare...

thats why right after sept. 7th/07 both the russians and iranians came to Syria to inspect their air defence network, since it is very similar to the iranian air defence network and they were afraid we would sue the same tactics against them again....

it would also explain why after sept.7th/07 the Syrian regime turned its air defence network on its head, changed all the leadership and purged it of anyone they had the smallest suspicion about (similar to Stalins purges of the 1930's, except they didnt get sent to the Gulags)...

Last edited by joejd12; 09-27-2008 at 04:35 AM..
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Old 09-27-2008, 05:25 AM
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Thanks, joejd12

Given the surprise the attack achieved, clearly if the attackers had been American, it would be assumed the reason was stealth aircraft.

And the continued secrecy about the target and the strike mission have left me very curious.

But I hear your arguments.
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Old 09-27-2008, 12:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpacemanSpiff View Post
I don't suppose there is any chance some of those F-117s made it into Israel's airforce ?
The published (leaked) details surrounding the Israeli air strike into Syria have already been posted on this forum:
http://www.israelmilitary.net/showthread.php?t=4137
The air raid was carried out by Israeli F-16I fighters - selected due to their ability to carry the latest Israeli targeting pods and air-to-ground weapons.

As those of us old enough to remember can attest to, the Israelis have been known for a long time to be the unrivaled masters at electronic warfare. Their ability to s**** opposing radar systems was well demonstrated over Lebanon in 1982, and has continued to evolve in the decades since. The Israeli air force devastated the Syrian air defense network at that time, freely entering and exiting Lebanese air space, and forcing the Syrian air force to scramble fighters to defend their missile batteries.

During this same period, in one of its very few forays over Lebanon, the US Navy would loose an A-6 Intruder to Syrian missile batteries in December 1983. The pilot was killed in that incident and the navigator captured. Years later, the US revealed that it had also lost an A-7 Corsair II during that same raid - but that the pilot had been able to safely eject over the Mediterranean where he was rescued by US helicopters.

EW became a center focus for Israeli R&D following the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when it became evident that the US-supplied EW systems of the day were woefully inadequate. Ever since, the Israelis have insisted on incorporating their own systems into the aircraft that they purchase from the US. The Israelis had no need to fly the F-117 or any other stealth aircraft to punch holes in the Syrian air defense network. They have been doing that perfectly well without stealth technology for decades.

I would agree that the Israelis would certainly like to have a stealth aircraft, such as the F-35 in their service prior to an air strike over Iran. With or without the F-35 or any other stealth fighter, however, the Israelis will do what they have to.
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Old 09-27-2008, 12:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joejd12 View Post
thats why right after sept. 7th/07 both the russians and iranians came to Syria to inspect their air defence network, since it is very similar to the iranian air defence network and they were afraid we would sue the same tactics against them again....
The Syrian air defense network is actually far more dense than the one deployed in Iran - in large part because the Iranians have more air space to defend. The Iranian air defense system is of course being expanded and upgraded as we speak, but as of right now, it is still not as formidable as was Syria's.

You can gain a sense of these differences by comparing rings of theoretical missile coverage for the two nations. The following website was produced by a private individual who has made this into a hobby, identifying SAM sites from publicly available satellite photos. Be forewarned: the guy is highly anti-Israel (the Israelis should never, in his mind, be allowed to defend themselves). But his comparisons of SAM networks nonetheless make for interesting reading.
http://geimint.blogspot.com/2007/09/...m-network.html
http://geimint.blogspot.com/2007/09/...m-network.html

The images appended below were drawn from this website, and depict known Syrian and Iranian missile battery coverage.
Syrian SAMs.jpg
Iranian SAMS.jpg
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Old 09-27-2008, 09:09 PM
joejd12 joejd12 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haamimhagolan View Post
The Syrian air defense network is actually far more dense than the one deployed in Iran - in large part because the Iranians have more air space to defend. The Iranian air defense system is of course being expanded and upgraded as we speak, but as of right now, it is still not as formidable as was Syria's.

You can gain a sense of these differences by comparing rings of theoretical missile coverage for the two nations. The following website was produced by a private individual who has made this into a hobby, identifying SAM sites from publicly available satellite photos. Be forewarned: the guy is highly anti-Israel (the Israelis should never, in his mind, be allowed to defend themselves). But his comparisons of SAM networks nonetheless make for interesting reading.
http://geimint.blogspot.com/2007/09/...m-network.html
http://geimint.blogspot.com/2007/09/...m-network.html

The images appended below were drawn from this website, and depict known Syrian and Iranian missile battery coverage.
Attachment 1092
Attachment 1093
i didnt read the articles, but those pictures were very interesting... is Irans air defence really that in-adequate? or do they believe in quality over quantity? or are they jsut counting on the geographical defense (distance from israel)?
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Old 09-27-2008, 10:16 PM
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Topmaul Topmaul is offline
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Let's say there is an Isreali air raid on Iranian nuclear facilities what do you think the reaction would be in the ARAB and Islamic word?

What are the long term ramifications?

I believe Iran will become more determined to "defend themselves" and you could unlease a chain of events that will quickly become out of countrol. Especially with the Islamic Colonization of Europe well underway (what is the most common name given to a baby boy in France?). This event can touch off an unimagened fire storm.

If you ask me I am about as ready for it as I'm going to get.

Seriously I would expect conventionally armend missiles to be inbound from Iran with in a few hours of the raid. I also would expect various terrorists to become very active much more so than they have been. I would expect Iran to mine the Gulf, and stop the flow of oil. I would expect Iranian Aggitators in Iraq to become active targeting US, and Government forces in an attempt to sieze power and then use Iraq as a base to strike Israel.

Terrorism in the colonies (Europe) to become out of control

The big thing is this sub orbital bullistic missile counter attack of course some will be shot down but many more will get through.

Plus support will increase for the current Iranian government which is now in power within the country.

My point is Israel better have an end game strategy this time unlike the last little military adventure with no clear objective.

This is not a strategy "we'll fly in there drop some bombs and fly home" and they will just have to deal with it. These guys are not stupid they are serious, intelligent, and tough.
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Old 09-28-2008, 12:37 AM
joejd12 joejd12 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Topmaul View Post
Let's say there is an Isreali air raid on Iranian nuclear facilities what do you think the reaction would be in the ARAB and Islamic word?

What are the long term ramifications?

I believe Iran will become more determined to "defend themselves" and you could unlease a chain of events that will quickly become out of countrol. Especially with the Islamic Colonization of Europe well underway (what is the most common name given to a baby boy in France?). This event can touch off an unimagened fire storm.

If you ask me I am about as ready for it as I'm going to get.

Seriously I would expect conventionally armend missiles to be inbound from Iran with in a few hours of the raid. I also would expect various terrorists to become very active much more so than they have been. I would expect Iran to mine the Gulf, and stop the flow of oil. I would expect Iranian Aggitators in Iraq to become active targeting US, and Government forces in an attempt to sieze power and then use Iraq as a base to strike Israel.

Terrorism in the colonies (Europe) to become out of control

The big thing is this sub orbital bullistic missile counter attack of course some will be shot down but many more will get through.

Plus support will increase for the current Iranian government which is now in power within the country.

My point is Israel better have an end game strategy this time unlike the last little military adventure with no clear objective.

This is not a strategy "we'll fly in there drop some bombs and fly home" and they will just have to deal with it. These guys are not stupid they are serious, intelligent, and tough.
what you say is true... but you missed one important question....

what would happen if you woke up one day and discovered Iran has acquired nuclear weapons?

would you have us wait for them to supply some of those bombs to Hezbollah and Syria (not to mention Hamas and Fatah)? wait for us to be incinerated in a great big mushroom cloud?

would you want a nuclear arms race across the middle east? would you want a nuclear Egypt/Saudi Arabia/Turkey (all with strong jihadist populations)?

And the most important question in my humble opinion:

is the objective, which in this case is to eliminate or severely delay Irans nuclear program, worth the cost?

As you said, the cost to such a strike would be high, yet the other option is simply unthinkable (though its getting more likely with each passing day... just take a look at Peres' speech at the UN)....

p.s.-you should read what debkafile predicts about the aftermath of such a strike...
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