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  #1  
Old 11-01-2010, 12:56 PM
Jesse Eek Jesse Eek is offline
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Default How to enact on the Iranian Nuclear Threat?

Hi there,

I just read a Newspaper article from Benny Elon about 'the real threat comes from Iran'.

Here's how I think about solving it:

The key thing is that you should disarm Iran, without inflicting harm to Iran.
Properly conceived, it's an analogy of dismantling a bomb. (not necessarily an a-bomb :P)
Like you dismantle a bomb. You don’t do that by blowing it up.

How? I'm not really a bomb-dismante technician, but I think it can be done.
Somewhat like those computer viruses that were setting the Iranian Nuclear Program inoperative, but than off course, more effective. Clearing the case.

Greetings,

Jesse

Last edited by Jesse Eek; 11-01-2010 at 01:05 PM..
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Old 11-01-2010, 04:21 PM
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Whatever you do, don't ever, ever cut the red wire first!!

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That might of been the sad end of the story. But Nemo refused to give in without a fight. Ignoring his serious head wound, the 85 pound dog threw himself at the Vietcong guerrillas who had opened fire. Nemo's ferocious attack brought Thorneburg the time he needed to call in backup forces.

Although severely wounded, Nemo crawled to his master and covered him with his body.
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Old 11-01-2010, 06:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jesse Eek View Post
The key thing is that you should disarm Iran, without inflicting harm to Iran.
Properly conceived, it's an analogy of dismantling a bomb. (not necessarily an a-bomb :P)
Like you dismantle a bomb. You dont do that by blowing it up.
Yes its possible peacefully only if Iran allows.. which I don't see it in near future.
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Old 11-01-2010, 06:14 PM
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Default Iran envoy: Nuclear weapons would be a strategic mistake

Iran ambassador to IAEA says the Islamic Republic could never compete with the numbers of warheads possessed by the nuclear-armed major powers


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Old 11-01-2010, 07:08 PM
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Sorry, tried to make a joke, but it may have been a bad one.

This analogy is comparable to Iran if you take into consideration of all the variables. Are you talking assassination? That takes putting someone on the ground and with all security that surrounds the leadership, has a high probability of being a suicide mission, not to mention the political fallout. Are you talking a surgical, conventional airstrike?? Takes a lot of intel and being able to know where the leadership is at a given time, plus there will be collateral damage, which is the same as the bomb blowing up in your face. Are you talking nuclear strike?? Self explanatory. Are you talking sanctions?? There already in place, but to this point, have not deterred the leadership from pursuing the nuclear weapon. Plus, for sanctions to work, everybody has to be on board, it doesn't work when you have countries supplying Iran. Are you talking internal revolution?? How are we going to support that?? The resistance will need aircover and artillery support, so now we are on the ground over there. The revolutionary guard is just too strong for an armed uprising without support.

It would take an ideology change in the leadership for there to be a true change, how will that be accomplished, without them being "pulled out of office" in some way.?


edited to add: If your talking the computer virus or the explosion at the launch site, they are only temporary "headaches" that can be overcome by the leadership, and does not promote any kind of real change.

Maybe, if you could be a little more specific, we could help in knowing what to discuss.

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That might of been the sad end of the story. But Nemo refused to give in without a fight. Ignoring his serious head wound, the 85 pound dog threw himself at the Vietcong guerrillas who had opened fire. Nemo's ferocious attack brought Thorneburg the time he needed to call in backup forces.

Although severely wounded, Nemo crawled to his master and covered him with his body.

Last edited by odie072; 11-01-2010 at 07:10 PM.. Reason: Misssed a point
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Old 11-01-2010, 07:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeus View Post
Iran ambassador to IAEA says the Islamic Republic could never compete with the numbers of warheads possessed by the nuclear-armed major powers


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But the article and ambassador fail to take one thing into account, they(Iran), doesn't want to compete with the world powers, they would be happy with just one nuclear device detonated in downtown Tel Aviv. Think of the terror fallout that would create. Think of how catastrophic that would be for the world economic market. That's what Iran is all about, they could care less of the disaster that would befall Tehran after that. It's all about the 12th(?) Imam, whose stuck down in that well. Just one question about that. How has he not drowned??

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That might of been the sad end of the story. But Nemo refused to give in without a fight. Ignoring his serious head wound, the 85 pound dog threw himself at the Vietcong guerrillas who had opened fire. Nemo's ferocious attack brought Thorneburg the time he needed to call in backup forces.

Although severely wounded, Nemo crawled to his master and covered him with his body.
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Old 11-01-2010, 09:21 PM
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This Iranian putz is buttering 'World Powers' for unbanning sanctions.
Their economy is going down and government is starting to bend over.
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Old 11-01-2010, 09:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeus View Post
This Iranian putz is buttering 'World Powers' for unbanning sanctions.
Their economy is going down and government is starting to bend over.
Look at it another way too, it's a delaying tactic. Look at their history, about every 6 months now, they want to talk, then when we get close to talks, they do or say something that sends the talks downhill. If they were buttering us up, they would let the inspectors back in and say, "see, we weren't hiding anything, the west is just too suspicious." They know Obama is weak and can be manipulated.

Remember how North Korea manipulated their talks? Its the same pattern, with one exception, China was pulling the strings of North Korea, that's why the talks would actually get underway and then fall apart. Iran really has no one, except for Russia, who is standing on the outside of the talks and looking in.


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That might of been the sad end of the story. But Nemo refused to give in without a fight. Ignoring his serious head wound, the 85 pound dog threw himself at the Vietcong guerrillas who had opened fire. Nemo's ferocious attack brought Thorneburg the time he needed to call in backup forces.

Although severely wounded, Nemo crawled to his master and covered him with his body.

Last edited by odie072; 11-01-2010 at 09:56 PM.. Reason: Another point
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Old 11-01-2010, 10:14 PM
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Iran does understand that it will not survive for long if cut from rest of the world. There could be possibly two reasons (I think) for hypercritical Iranian attitude, firstly, Ahemdinejad's prepubescent testosterone secretion or secondly, to get US to offer terms, which is likely to happen.
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Old 11-01-2010, 10:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeus View Post
Iran does understand that it will not survive for long if cut from rest of the world. There could be possibly two reasons (I think) for hypercritical Iranian attitude, firstly, Ahemdinejad's prepubescent testosterone secretion or secondly, to get US to offer terms, which is likely to happen.
Their hypocritical attitude is because they want a nuclear weapon. Their delaying tactic is what has got them a nuclear "power plant" and one step closer to the nuclear weapon. The mullahs could care less what state their country is in, just look at the violent way they put down rebellion in their country and suppress the very student uprisings that put their way of life into being. The revolutionary guard is very powerful in Iran. They are the right hand of the mullahs. Just watch and see, it won't be but a few weeks before something happens that shuts down the "want" to talk again. One other thing also, they just got caught again, trying to ship weapons to (somewhere) by Nigeria. Just another diplomatic two-step.

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That might of been the sad end of the story. But Nemo refused to give in without a fight. Ignoring his serious head wound, the 85 pound dog threw himself at the Vietcong guerrillas who had opened fire. Nemo's ferocious attack brought Thorneburg the time he needed to call in backup forces.

Although severely wounded, Nemo crawled to his master and covered him with his body.
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Old 11-01-2010, 10:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by odie072 View Post
Whatever you do, don't ever, ever cut the red wire first!!

odie072
I hear you !

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jesse Eek View Post
The key thing is that you should disarm Iran, without inflicting harm to Iran.
Properly conceived, it's an analogy of dismantling a bomb. (not necessarily an a-bomb :P)
Like you dismantle a bomb. You dont do that by blowing it up.
Phasers on stun ? I wish it was as simple as the movies.

I think highly of the IDF, just as I think highly of the US military, but minimizing our own casualties is tough enough.

I am afraid that when it comes time to take out that Iranian death star, Israel will be shooting for keeps.
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Old 11-01-2010, 10:56 PM
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These are all the things I was not talking about, and in a way I was when I was saying 'not inflicting any harm to Iran': assassination, airstrike, nuclear strike (least of all), sanctions. Those are indeed options you read about most, but those are all confronting from the outside, not really solving the problem internally.

All are harming Iran, but Iran itself is not the problem. I'm talking about the spirit that wants to destroy Israel, which is housed by some Iranians, who have the potentially (political, economic and military) power to do so. If you would let that disappear, it forms no threat to Israel anymore. And there can even be peace and prosperity in the region.

All physical destroying attempts to stop Iran won't break their spirit, it will only fuel their will and (in theirs and their allies' eyes) legitimate there actions against Israel even more (not to think of encouraging Hezbollah in South Libanon to start a war with Israel).
Also this isn't good for Israels support, which it receives from other countries, which would not want Israel to physically attack Iran.

There should be a way to dismante the whole Iranian Nuclear Program, some brilliant idea (you should write out a contest for that:P), without inflicting Iran itself. But still by that, taking out the threatening sting that Iran is now assumed to have.

Internal revolution is an interesting one, but that's not something we have or ought to have anything to do with.
Hah and your joke ws funny, and yes we shouldn't cut the red wire from Iran ; )

Maybe this is all just some bullcrap writing, but I think it's important to look at this in a very clever way, outsmarting the expected reality on which they are prepared. They being people who want to whipe Israel of the map [with possibly the means of a nuclear bomb]. And the expected reality on which they are prepared being all options you named.. but maybe one of them could be an option.

If the US would support military action to Iran, if there really isn't another way, by bunkerbustering Irans Nuclear facilities.. then what. The you destroyed a countries' one of their biggest (maybe national) prides: a nuclear energy program which entailed despite heavy international criticism on it.

To what means will they grab then?

So the best would be, (but I'm very tired now), and I can only think of this in terms of a model or analogy because reality is too complex for it, to get the batteries out of the remote control so it won't work any more.
The remote control itself being Iran and it's people, which have a right to exist and live their lives. Also to have nuclear energy.
The batteries being the People/spirit/nuclear weapon plan, wanting to whipe Israel of the map, by use of the remote control (the State of Iran and its military, economic and political capacity) to realize their plans.

Or switching the batteries for the ones that want nuclear energy, peace with Israel, prosperity in the region, etc. But I'm talking big now. Nuclear threat is the main point. Iran ought not to have the right to a nuclear weapon, nor should any other country, so you should somehow be able to take away that threat, without provoking a war.

I'm very curious about what will happen coming months.

It's a long text, just wanting to put it out :P

Last edited by Jesse Eek; 11-01-2010 at 11:05 PM..
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Old 11-01-2010, 11:14 PM
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OK, so you believe that their Nuclear program is for peaceful means? It's all very nice to sit around and sing Kum bay ya(sp??), but this is the real world. You say this from the standpoint that Iran is not a threat to Israel. If we "just let that disappear"(your words), implies that this will all just go away if we stop paying attention to them(as if they were a small child, just ignore them and they'll quit).

I wish it were that simple, but it's not. Iran and the Mullahs want a nuclear weapon to destroy Israel and bring about the coming of the 12th or 13th Imam. In theory, it would be great if we could just hit a button and their memories would be wiped out and they wouldn't remember why they've built all of those facilities.

They have put their country in dire straits financially in their pursuit of nuclear weapons, and as Zeus, stated they've isolated their country from the Western world, but just look at their standing in the terrorist world. They are the top of the ladder. A terrorist that straps a vest to him or herself and blows themselves up, cannot be negotiated with. That's what we are dealing with here, not sane or rational people. Just remember intelligence does not automatically indicate rational thinking. Numerous dictators in the history of the world have been "nuts" at the same time they were intelligent.


Jesse Eek, this old world just isn't that simple. But your claim of Nuclear energy and nuclear power are a little confusing to me, if they were honest endeavors, why are they keeping the inspectors out and why did they go underground??

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That might of been the sad end of the story. But Nemo refused to give in without a fight. Ignoring his serious head wound, the 85 pound dog threw himself at the Vietcong guerrillas who had opened fire. Nemo's ferocious attack brought Thorneburg the time he needed to call in backup forces.

Although severely wounded, Nemo crawled to his master and covered him with his body.
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Old 11-02-2010, 04:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by odie072 View Post
OK, so you believe that their Nuclear program is for peaceful means? It's all very nice to sit around and sing Kum bay ya(sp??), but this is the real world. You say this from the standpoint that Iran is not a threat to Israel. If we "just let that disappear"(your words), implies that this will all just go away if we stop paying attention to them(as if they were a small child, just ignore them and they'll quit).

I wish it were that simple, but it's not. Iran and the Mullahs want a nuclear weapon to destroy Israel and bring about the coming of the 12th or 13th Imam. In theory, it would be great if we could just hit a button and their memories would be wiped out and they wouldn't remember why they've built all of those facilities.

They have put their country in dire straits financially in their pursuit of nuclear weapons, and as Zeus, stated they've isolated their country from the Western world, but just look at their standing in the terrorist world. They are the top of the ladder. A terrorist that straps a vest to him or herself and blows themselves up, cannot be negotiated with. That's what we are dealing with here, not sane or rational people. Just remember intelligence does not automatically indicate rational thinking. Numerous dictators in the history of the world have been "nuts" at the same time they were intelligent.


Jesse Eek, this old world just isn't that simple. But your claim of Nuclear energy and nuclear power are a little confusing to me, if they were honest endeavors, why are they keeping the inspectors out and why did they go underground??

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Old 11-02-2010, 11:45 AM
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I think I confused it a bit,

But I do see the threat, it's real, and nuclear.
I just wanted to show how I think of the other side of the story (if it were a peaceful program).

And yes the nuclear threat should be destroyed, let me be clear on that.
Although indeed their argument is that 1 atomic bomb wouldn't be able to let them compete with other world powers, 1 atomic bomb s enough to completely destroy Tel Aviv.. which would mean something like whiping Israel of the map.

I think indeed that Israels military should be prepared on a frontal war with Iran and Hezbollah. For when they destroy the nuclear powerplants that would enable Iran to create an atomic bomb.

But isn't there another option to like paralize Iran, making it harmless, so a frontal war won't break out. Cause that's not really what you want.

I pray for the peace of Israel and the Middle East.

And Kumbaya sounds great yes!; P
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Old 11-02-2010, 08:03 PM
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Quote: "But isn't there another option to like paralyze Iran, making it harmless, so a frontal war won't break out. Cause that's not really what you want."

To answer your question the way you are asking it? One word: NO.

And when you say "that's not really not what you want." That's true. Even Netanyahu, has stated, "if the Arabs lay down their arms there would be peace, if Israel lays down her arms, she will be destroyed." No sane, rational thinking person ever wants to take someone else's life or cause hardship or heartache in someone's life, but, don't take that as a sign of weakness, as Sir Winston Churchill stated, "We sleep soundly in our beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm." Most of us will not hesitate to defend our G_d, ourselves, those we love and our Country if any are threatened. Don't take trying to find other solutions as a weakness. That's a trap that the enemy want's the one's who aren't "wise in the way's" to fall into, so don't fall for it.


What it seems to me that your getting at is: isn't there a way to disrupt their computers, isn't there a way to disable their electronics, things like that. Our technology today, all the above would be just temporary solutions. The computer virus that they got not long ago, only temporarily caused an issue. If I'm not mistaken, their reactors went on line about a week or two ago(may not have been their reactors, but something went forward, can't remember exactly what).

In order to effect a change in Iran right now, the Mullahs, the Government and the Revolutionary Guard MUST go. their is no other way. I understand that not everyone in Iran thinks the way the nuts do, but, they allowed them to take power back in the 70's, so now they're having to live with their mistake. The easiest way out of this would be for the people to stand up and take matters in their own hands. But that would take a coordinated effort between them and an outside government strong enough to give them support(arms, airstrikes, artillery or missile support from offshore). If you could come up with something better, please fill free to state, but as long as the leadership in Iran stays in power, all the little inconveniences can be overcome.

Do you know of anywhere around the world, that a diplomatic solution has actually worked?? And when I say worked, I'm not talking about a treaty being signed, but both sides, or all that are involved, actually getting what they wanted and are living the way they wanted too??

I'm a fan of Star Trek, but I understand what I see on that show is "in a perfect world", maybe one day this old world and the people that are in it, will see the error of their ways and well be able to live like that. But in reality, we'll have to do away with, greed, corruption, power grabbing, which are things that humanity have conditioned themselves to, so I don't have a lot of hope for that. It's going to take strong democracies to come together, educate the world, then wait for the educated to grow up.

But, I'm willing to listen to any suggestions.

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Although severely wounded, Nemo crawled to his master and covered him with his body.
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Old 11-02-2010, 10:28 PM
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Yes they started fueling the reactors.

I like how you speak of it, it is indeed a small slippy road where Netanyahu must find himself on now. I pray for the rest in his heart, that he will act wisely.

I think there have been diplomatic successes actually.. if you look at Europe nowadays. Well or maybe not really, because total war was prior to that. Maybe if you look at the peace between Egypt and Israel, but prior to that there was war too, and their peace also hasn't really consolidated yet, and it is to see that it holds in the future.

What you say is right, about the Mullahs, (Ahmadinejad's) government and the Revolutionary Guard having to go. And what do you mean by 'as long as the leadership in Iran stays to power, all the little inconveniences can be overcome'. Do you mean 'have to be overcome'?

Hah I remember watching Star Trek when I was younger, don't remember that being "in a perfect world", do remember the battles with Borgs :P
I think so too such a new world will be created, without humans conditioning themselves to those things indeed. Have to belief in that ^^.

I think next month is going to be important (november), we'll also have to see what the voting outcome in the US will be. Cause a winning of the Republicans, will also mean another approach to the Middle East and especially towards Iran.

Last edited by Jesse Eek; 11-02-2010 at 10:31 PM..
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Old 11-02-2010, 11:43 PM
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Yes, lets look at Europe. Ravaged by 2 world wars(in recent history), millions dead, the greatest atrocities against mankind occurred in Europe. Fast forward to today. Sharia law in Britain, France having to come out with a law against Burkhas, Mosque being built at a rate not ever seen before.

But the comparison was diplomacy working. It was only achieved by wars, with one side being able to claim total victory, with the losers having to submit to the will of the victor. Not through diplomacy.

The peace between Egypt and Israel is a tenuous peace at best. Look at the tunnels from Egypt to Gaza. Look at the Egyptian govt turning a blind eye to it. How many weapons have been smuggled through these tunnels that have killed Israeli citizens? Not good for Israel. As you stated before that, there was war, several. All diplomacy has done there, is it has kept the two from shooting at each other. But only after Israel defeated their Army and Air Force and sent them running back to Egypt.

What I meant about the little inconveniences is, such as the computer virus that they had to contend with, any electronic disruption that we could cause. These things would be nothing more than little inconveniences, that the government would be able to get around. Not having a long lasting affect, and definitely not enacting a regime change.

The Star Trek analogy I was referring too, was the fact that "our" earth had overcome all of the problems and we was moving out into the other worlds to try and spread peace there. But those problems didn't exist anymore on the Star Trek earth.

Even if the Repubs win this election, at the best all we'll have in this Country is a stalemate until the general election of 2012, when we'll chose a new President.

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Although severely wounded, Nemo crawled to his master and covered him with his body.
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Old 11-02-2010, 11:52 PM
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Regarding your basic contention, Jesse, I think a case can be made that modern wars have no end precisely because they cause a relatively small number of casualties. And that the fighting ends without the people feeling beaten. Iraq is a primary example of this. So is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Compare this with Japan and Nazi Germany in WWII--they knew they were beaten !
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Old 11-03-2010, 12:53 AM
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Well said SpacemanSpiff. And something I didn't say in my other post. WWI ended by a treaty, even with the millions killed, it was diplomacy that led to WW2 that ended with a defeat and surrender.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Versailles


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Although severely wounded, Nemo crawled to his master and covered him with his body.
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