Israel Mulling Delays in F-35 Deliveries

[haamimhagolan]

Originally Posted by HideNSeek

What a mess of a program, Israel shouldn't even think of buying this thing until at least a decade down the line. But politics I'm sure will come into play.

I agree that the Israelis should hold off on a buy. The Obama Administration is not going to allow the Israelis any flexibility in how Israeli aircraft would be outfitted. Better to wait until things are sorted out (and the cost comes down) than to jump in now. Besides, there are plenty of other gaps to fill in Israel's order of battle.

[ralfabco]

Israel should take some funds, and spend on additional training and equipment for very hi-quality commandos. No doubt, a clash with Hezbollah is inevitable. Israel should buy better precision long-range bolt-action rifles, sophisticated mines, top quality night vision, flame throwers, expand the training to become even more realistic, purchase remote control devices, decoys, drones, and move in and out of the coast of Lebanon by sea.

You cannot hurt Hezbollah too much, with fighter airplanes dropping bombs. You need to send commandos into the combat zone, and kill Hezbollah fighters at close range.

Sending an F-16I to bomb a bunker, is a waste of money and resources. Commandos will obtain better results. You cannot destroy by air, a significant # of the approximate 5,000 insurgent Hezbollah fighters, who are dispersed and hidden, all over South and Central Lebanon. It is too expensive, to use a tactical fighter against dispersed insurgents, in an asymmetrical ground campaign.

[haamimhagolan]

If and when the next Lebanon war takes place, it will be with a combined arms approach that utilizes air power, naval firepower, artillery, armour and infantry in concert. The mistake of the last Lebanon war was to try and win the war with air power alone. As was demonstrated by Operation Cast Lead, the Israelis have learned from those mistakes.

Air power alone does not win wars. Infantry alone only leads to unacceptable casualties. The Israelis will use all of their resources next time - not just one element. Hezbollah will be hit from every direction - including a few that they hadn't imagined possible.

[haamimhagolan]

The IDF is reporting that their 2010 budget allocation will be focused on replenishing stockpiles and upgrading their core elements to prepare for another round of fighting in Lebanon:
http://www.jpost.com/Israel/Article.aspx?id=167622

In addition to buying munitions, this will mean purchasing additional Merkava Mk IV tanks, Namer armoured personnel carriers, and retrofitting Tropy self-protection systems to existing armour. The Israeli air force will be purchasing additional Heron UAV's, upgrading their older Apache helicopters, and will also be purchasing new C-130J transports.

To pay for the stockpile replenishment program, the IDF will be borrowing funds from the 2011 budget - and their 2011 budget will be down-sized accordingly. All of this makes it unlikely that the IDF will be placing an order for the F-35 during the next year. There's no reason to sign a contract if the funding isn't there in 2011 for long-lead procurement. An F-35 funded by the US for the 2011 FY, for example, isn't delivered until the 2013 FY. A two-year lead time for a weapon of this sophistication is typical.

So it looks like the IDF has reached the same conclusion that many of us have. There is no reason to rush to buy the F-35, when the Obama Administration doesn't want to cooperate with Israeli military requirements, and the airplane won't be available quickly enough to take part in any upcoming operation over Iran.

[joejd12]

Originally Posted by haamimhagolan

The IDF is reporting that their 2010 budget allocation will be focused on replenishing stockpiles and upgrading their core elements to prepare for another round of fighting in Lebanon:
http://www.jpost.com/Israel/Article.aspx?id=167622

In addition to buying munitions, this will mean purchasing additional Merkava Mk IV tanks, Namer armoured personnel carriers, and retrofitting Tropy self-protection systems to existing armour. The Israeli air force will be purchasing additional Heron UAV's, upgrading their older Apache helicopters, and will also be purchasing new C-130J transports.

To pay for the stockpile replenishment program, the IDF will be borrowing funds from the 2011 budget - and their 2011 budget will be down-sized accordingly. All of this makes it unlikely that the IDF will be placing an order for the F-35 during the next year. There's no reason to sign a contract if the funding isn't there in 2011 for long-lead procurement. An F-35 funded by the US for the 2011 FY, for example, isn't delivered until the 2013 FY. A two-year lead time for a weapon of this sophistication is typical.

So it looks like the IDF has reached the same conclusion that many of us have. There is no reason to rush to buy the F-35, when the Obama Administration doesn't want to cooperate with Israeli military requirements, and the airplane won't be available quickly enough to take part in any upcoming operation over Iran.

in my humble opinion, this aspect of the procurement is by far the most necessary and urgent for any future war in the north...

i really hope the idf has upped its retrofitting of the trophy system, i remember them talking about have one brigade of tanks fitted with them by sometime in 2010...

[HideNSeek]

There are articles indicating the US is willing to set up an F-35 maintenance
center in Israel (because Italy was not good for Israel), but manned by US personnel.

I still hope Israel doesn't go for it, Israel doesn't need more overlords watching their every move.

[haamimhagolan]

According to the latest reports, the Obama Pentagon his attempting to press Israel into signing a deal for the F-35 in March - but still has not budged on the fundamental Israeli requirement that Israeli aircraft must feature an Israeli ECM system.

As proposed, the Israelis would agree to the Obama Administraton's deal in March, with funding coming out of the 2012 budget for procuring long lead time items. The aircraft wouldn't arrive until 2015, however.

Unwritten in this article is a very real truth regarding this program. The White House has just announced that the US intends to stretch out the development of this aircraft - which will drive up the unit cost of the early editions of the fighter. If the Israelis decide not to buy the airplane at this time, it is going to set a precedent that the most combat tested air force in the world has decided that this airplane isn't worth the cost. The European partners could be persuaded to similarly delay their purchases, further reducing the size of the early production lots, and driving unit costs even higher. For Lockheed Martin, which produces the airplane, this is a very real thing to worry about.

Personally, I think the decision has already been made. The Israeli government is not interested in an airplane without Israeli avionics, without the ability to service the airplane in Israel, and at a unit cost that's nearly double what the learned-out cost is expected to be for the US Air Force.
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Sec...4751266002107/

[panzermk2]

Check out this vid. The F-35 is one bad ass plane.

http://www.es.northropgrumman.com/so...odasvideo.html

[WABA]

Originally Posted by panzermk2

Check out this vid. The F-35 is one bad ass plane.

http://www.es.northropgrumman.com/so...odasvideo.html

Excellent video, if the system works as good as the manufactures claim, the F35 in the hands of a well trained fighter pilot will be almost invincible.

One thing the video does show is the reason that it takes decades to introduce a WORKING electronic whizbang system whether it be army, navy or airforce manned system.

If Russia or China wish to build a 5th generation aircraft it while take them 15 - 20 years too

[panzermk2]

I like the part about looking through the floor and not having to turn to engage a plane behind you. That would be one hell of a nasty surprise.

Think about it, the closing speed of a mach 3 missile coming at you from the FRONT. Also every single countermeasure out there is for air-to-air missiles is designed to protect the ass of the plane and to some extent the sides. This system instantly makes every counter measure out there junk.

[haamimhagolan]

In response to delays and rising costs in the F-35 program, the IDF is examining whether or not to procure additional F-15I or F-16I fighters until the F-35 becomes available.
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Sec...7331271704671/

Although the Heyl haAvir had originally proposed procuring their first squadron of F-35 fighters beginning in 2012, plans to purchase the new fighter have been put on hold while the Pentagon sorts out its own procurement plans. Full rate production for the F-35 has slipped from 2013 to 2015, and projected unit costs for early, low rate production aircraft are expected to be double that of earlier estimates. Israel's plans to procure the F-35 have been further stymied by the Pentagon's refusal to allow IDF aircraft to be fitted with Israeli avionics, electronic warfare packages, and weapons.

[HideNSeek]

Originally Posted by haamimhagolan

In response to delays and rising costs in the F-35 program, the IDF is examining whether or not to procure additional F-15I or F-16I fighters until the F-35 becomes available.
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Sec...7331271704671/

Although the Heyl haAvir had originally proposed procuring their first squadron of F-35 fighters beginning in 2012, plans to purchase the new fighter have been put on hold while the Pentagon sorts out its own procurement plans. Full rate production for the F-35 has slipped from 2013 to 2015, and projected unit costs for early, low rate production aircraft are expected to be double that of earlier estimates. Israel's plans to procure the F-35 have been further stymied by the Pentagon's refusal to allow IDF aircraft to be fitted with Israeli avionics, electronic warfare packages, and weapons.

I wish Israel could buy the shell of a Su-35BM, and put their own electronics on board, it would still be probably cheaper than buying F-15E/SE. But we all know that won't happen, and Israel will buy some overpriced F-15/F-16. Sometimes I wish Israel would just politely decline the US aid, or buy something else with it, because buying overpriced jets is just silly. Back in the day, the US produced top of line jets, these days, well, they scraped their best one (F-22), and are making something that costs who knows what. Especially when these days the US likes to tell Israel what to do, Israel might think to look elsewhere.

[Shavrah]

Sometimes I wish Israel would just politely decline the US aid

politely decline 2,5 bi U$/Year ??? That´s not a god idea.

[HideNSeek]

Originally Posted by Shavrah

politely decline 2,5 bi U$/Year ??? That´s not a god idea.

This money gives Americans the power to dictate both policy, and control Israeli armaments. It hinders Israeli industry by essentially forcing Israel to buy American products, while banning some Israeli components ( see the Elta 2052, which was banned from being incorporated into F16I purchase, forcing Israelis to use a worse American made radar). It also removes bargaining ability: these days with competitions, countries demand and get technology transfer, industrial offsets etc, with this arrangement it never happens in Israel. This money is more beneficial to Americans than Israelis, it helps there defense industries and forces Israeli defense companies to transfer work to the US (which hurts Israeli workers). Not to mention Americans basically get Israeli technology for pennies on the dollar (Israeli F-16 modification requests for the F-16I saved millions in research and development costs for LM, there is an article about it if you search, Arrow is another example, which US banned for sale to India ). I can also add that little fiasco with China about the Harpy drones & phalcon which were 100% Israeli, but Americans intervened costing billions to Israel, and worsening relations with China. There was also a similar but behind the scenes pressure on Israel during the South Korean competition for their AEW aircraft (phalcon was favored by the Koreans, but American pressure on Israel scared them off because of future potential problems). And of course with the recent Indian competition were IAI was basically told not to work with the Gripen group.

In the past, this was at least bearable because Americans made weapons which were both affordable and potent. These days, their platforms are becoming increasingly costly, and have questionable characteristics. 2.5bln is not much when a single F-35 might go for 150 to 200 million, not to mention maintenance costs, and those nasty little refusals to have some Israeli equipment on board.

Why not just forget about this aid, which with inflation, might soon be even less meaningful and go out and buy some Su-30 for 50-60 mil customized with Israeli equipment? Barak is an American pooch, but maybe in the future? Ah, who am I kidding.

It's not like I'm a fan of Russian policy, but you got to pick your poison.

[akivah]

Israel can now afford to decline US military Aid. Its only 1.2% of Israeli GDP and Israel is growing at around 4.4% a year - thus about 3 month growth.
Israel should start planning a withdrawal of this aid over the next 5 years.
For all the reasons in the above post the aid is bad for Israel - a dangerous crutch that reduces Israeli independence and strategic freedom.
Israel should also forget the F35 and go with it own UAV solutions.
The F35 will be the last manned fighter and robots are much better at flying than people. Israel leads the world in UAVs so should focus on its strength.

[haamimhagolan]

Originally Posted by akivah

Israel can now afford to decline US military Aid. Its only 1.2% of Israeli GDP and Israel is growing at around 4.4% a year - thus about 3 month growth.

I agree that US military aid to Israel is a smaller fraction of Israel's military budget than it once was. Bear in mind, however, that Israel currently spends around 7.3% of its own GDP on defense - the 6th highest expenditure rate in the world. In comparison, the United States (which is now at war) spends around 4.1% of its GDP on defense, and the governments of Western Europe spend far less. US military assistance accounts for around 16% of Israel's defense budget - not something that can be done away with lightly.

I do agree that we are moving towards the day when US military assistance to Israel will be phased out, however. Either because the US becomes less friendly towards Israel (as Obama is now leading America), or because the Israeli government declines the aid. I would put the date out at around 10-years, however, and not 5.

[ralfabco]

Israel needs to put together a 20 year plan, to further develop relations with Russia, China, and India. In my opinion, Europe will be as hostile to Israel in the immediate future, as Turkey is today. Give Europe another ten to twenty years, and they will significantly tax all Israeli products or ban all commerce with Israel. Israel needs to open additional markets for commerce and weapons procurement.

As the restive young Muslim population of Europe continues to grow, the local politicians will increasingly panhandle to the local Muslims, in an effort to obtain political support and attempt to curb domestic Muslim terrorism. Of course we all know, that going cap in hand to Muslims, will never work. Let's face it, the small Jewish minority in Europe, is not known to riot for days and threaten local terrorist actions. According to a recent article in the Guardian, just before the 7/7 Underground attacks, one out of three British Muslims in the U.K., support domestic terrorism inside of the U.K. !

With the strong potential for anti-Israel W. European countries, and future hostile American administrations, it is wise for Israel to put even more emphasis on additional expanding markets. It will only become worse, if Obama is re-elected in 2012. Obama is just waiting to take off the gloves and force Israel to sue for peace, as the Palestinians climb up the tree.

[haamimhagolan]

Israeli negotiators are reporting that there has been no progress towards bridging the gap between what the Obama Administration's DoD is offering them, and what Israel requires with respect to integrating Israeli systems into the F-35. In the words of one Israeli official, "more time and goodwill is needed before an agreement can be signed."
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...stalemate.html

Since there is not going to be an increase in goodwill from the Obama Administration anytime soon, added to the fact that the entire F-35 production schedule has been delayed by two years, it has become evident that no deal will be closed until after the Obama Administration leaves office.

[ralfabco]

Originally Posted by haamimhagolan

Israeli negotiators are reporting that there has been no progress towards bridging the gap between what the Obama Administration's DoD is offering them, and what Israel requires with respect to integrating Israeli systems into the F-35. In the words of one Israeli official, "more time and goodwill is needed before an agreement can be signed."
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...stalemate.html

Since there is not going to be an increase in goodwill from the Obama Administration anytime soon, added to the fact that the entire F-35 production schedule has been delayed by two years, it has become evident that no deal will be closed until after the Obama Administration leaves office.

I think it is in Israel's interests to delay the purchase of the F-35. Perhaps Obama will come around, to some degree, after he is significantly politically weakened, after the November 2010 mid-term elections. Obama is nothing but a Muslim apologist, who is only interested in harming Israel's security and standing in the Middle East. Israel should wait for a different administration, before it agrees to purchase the F-35.

With this being the case, it is probably a good idea, to immediately procure advanced tactical ground systems and weapons for small scale insurgent irregular warfare.

Let's face it, no F-15I, F-16I, F-35A, and or F-22, is going to be too effective, at locating a moving Hezbollah insurgent, while it is hot and low. In addition, how can Israel afford the financial cost, of waging a small scale tactical asymmetric ground war, with fast tactical jets ?

Unfortunately, Israel will soon need to storm dug-in Hezbollah fighters, who will simply wait out, the Israeli jets while they attack the ever increasing elusive targets. Israel needs to buy advanced night vision equipment, flame throwers, advanced sniper rifles, and all kinds of sophisticated equipment, for a tactical ground campaign.

Send the F-16I, to bomb POL storage facilities in Syria. Send the F-15I, to bomb airfields, deep behind enemy lines. Send in the ground soldiers, to clean up Hezbollah fighters that move in and out of civilian homes. Spend the cash on training and equipment for the ground soldiers.

The F-35 ? Wait for another POTUS.

[HideNSeek]

What needs to be said is that the IDF budget goes mostly towards paying salaries etc, so reforms need to be made there to save lots of $$$. Treating some regular electrician (or the like) who just happens to work for the IDF like a combat officer is crazy, there should be no pension and early retirement just because he words for the IDF.