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  #1  
Old 04-15-2010, 11:58 AM
haamimhagolan haamimhagolan is offline
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Default Syria Supplies Hezbollah with Scud Rockets

News reports eminating from Kuwait indicate that Syria recently supplied Hezbollah with Scud-type ballistic missiles.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1162658.html

This move was subsequently confirmed by President Shimon Peres. Scud missiles would place all of Israeli territory within the range of Hezbollah.
http://www.time.com/time/world/artic...rss-topstories

Although none of the news reports have emphasized it, there should be little doubt as to the role that Iran is also playing in the increase in tensions along Israel's northern frontier. Iran has been the primary funding source for much of Hezbollah's arms build-up for decades, and clearly intends to use Hezbollah as its proxy in the event of a future air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.
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Old 04-15-2010, 07:30 PM
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Can anyone be seriously surprised at this? Syria is a powerful player within the Middle East, and with Iran, a centre of sponsorship for terrorism and chaos against neighbours. We only have to look at the continuing attempt to enforce their will on Lebanon to be aware, that Syria has no desire for a peaceful co-existence between it's neighbours.

While Syria nor anyone else in the Middle East cares for the Palestinians, they do care for the chaos and anarchy which groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah can create. Weakening a strong and potential opponent within the region.
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Old 04-16-2010, 11:08 PM
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I can wait see how many Lebanese civilians get kill in the next time Hezbollah start a war with Israel. With Syria supplies Hezbollah scud missiles. Known Hezbollah they are going fire these weapons in places that load with civilians. Also if President Obama policy of not sell new combat aircrafts to Israel does not change before Israel and Hezbollah have next fire fight. Many more Lebanese civilians will die because Israel weapons not have as good aim as would more advance technology.
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  #4  
Old 04-17-2010, 10:54 AM
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Default Hisbullah statement

on 17 Apr 2010 ... Earlier on Friday a Hezbollah government minister said that whether or not they have acquired scud missiles is none of Israel's business. ...

I think he is hugely wrong and unfortunately it will mean many civilians dead again because they can´t try to aniquilate Israel without the risk to get the same destiny.
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  #5  
Old 04-17-2010, 02:13 PM
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I see on Ynet this morning th US has doubts that these missiles have left Syria.
Hopefully not and the Moossad can intercept them before they reach Lebannon.
but I think its probably too late to hope.
It does look like they are seriously arming with advanced weapons.
perhaps a third war by september is on the cards??
but my logic is hezbollah dont want to aggrivate Israel or there stocks will be wiped out.
Another drill will be held now to accomodate this new threat I hope the new Krav Aluf will be up to the job to make the descion on whether to go to war or not.
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  #6  
Old 04-17-2010, 03:26 PM
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I don't look at this by itself as being a game changer. Most Israeli airfields are already threatened by the various Zelzals and Fajrs in Hezbollah's inventory. The only additional air bases that Hezbollah Scuds threaten are Hatzerim and Nevatim, and of course the Dimona complex. And the city of Beersheba. However, Scuds are not accurate enough to truly threaten the airbases, unless armed with chemical warheads.

Similarly, Scuds are not quite the "shoot and scoot" weapons to the extent that smaller solid fueled rockets and missile are, and will place a higher logistics burden on Hezbollah.

Does anyone have any thoughts on the likely deployment area of Scuds in Lebanon ? (Just wondering if the deployment might be limited to mostly good roads in flat terrain, like perhaps the Bekaa Valley.)

Anyway, Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria appear to be pumped with enthusiasm as a result of the political winds (Obama's hatred towards Israel) and due to the expectation that an Iranian nuclear weapon is now just a matter of time. I worry.
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Old 04-17-2010, 10:06 PM
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Default The Syrian Missile Crisis: Threat of War Very Real

The Syrian Missile Crisis: Threat of War Very Real

16 April 2010: The threat of a regional war involving Syria, Lebanon, Hezbollah and Israel is more ominous today that it has been at any time since the end of the brief summer war of 2006. The hair-trigger this time involves the reported Syrian delivery of WMD-capable SS-1C "Scud-B" ballistic missiles (like the one seen above) or, according to anonymous Israeli sources the SS-1E "Scud D," to the Shi'a terrorist organization Hezbollah in Lebanon.

On Tuesday, 13 April 2010, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak went public in confirming the stunning news that the governments of Syria and Lebanon were in blatant and deliberate violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 which brought a tenuous end to the Israel-Hezbollah war of July-August 2006. The bombshell news first reported by the Kuwaiti Al-Rai news agency was that Syria was in the process of transferring Scud ballistic missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Item 8 of UNSCR 1701 called for "no sales or supply of arms and related materiel to Lebanon except as authorized by its Government," and Item 14 called for "the Government of Lebanon to secure its borders and other entry points to prevent the entry in Lebanon without its consent of arms or related materiel," and Item 15(a) which decided "all States shall take the necessary measures to prevent, by their nationals or from their territories ... The sale or supply to any entity or individual in Lebanon of arms and related materiel of all types, including weapons and ammunition, military vehicles and equipment, paramilitary equipment, and spare parts for the aforementioned, whether or not originating in their territories; and 15(b) The provision to any entity or individual in Lebanon of any technical training or assistance related to the provision, manufacture, maintenance or use of the items listed in subparagraph (a) above..."

With the reported transfer of Scud ballistic missiles and the training in Syria of Hezbollah troops on the operation and maintenance of these weapons Syria has been caught red-handed and in clear war-provoking violation of UNSCR 1701. The government of Lebanon shares in culpability due to its obvious complicity in the arming and training of Hezbollah's forces due to its failure to control its national territory and borders. This is the most egregious violation of UNSCR 1701 to date, as evidenced by the wholesale re-arming of Hezbollah with even more advanced weapons (such as Syrian-made M-600 rockets and Russian-made Igla-S MANPADS) by Iran, Syria and possibly North Korea during the past 3 years and 7 months, and constitutes a rock-solid casus belli for Israel to immediately begin pre-emptively striking the missiles, and fixed targets related to the weapons transfer and associated training facilities in both Lebanon and Syria. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad bears the lion's share of personal responsibility for provoking the threat of a regional war which could very rapidly escalate to a large-scale exchange of weapons of mass destruction in the Levant.

While rumors continue to circulate in major world capitals that the Syrian's transferred top-of-the line SS-1E Scud-D (50 meter CEP) missiles to Hezbollah, no proof of has yet been made public to confirm the rumor. These missiles would give Hezbollah the capability ot act as a proxy for iran in launching a preemptive or retaliatory strike against Israel's Dimona nuclear complex should Israel strike Iranian nuclear targets in the near term. Sans photographic or human intelligence proof of the Scud variant transferred to Hezbollah, my assessment is that Syria sent the SS-1C Scud-B variant to Hezbollah. Scud-Bs are 1960s-era missiles (obsolete for a modern army), and they would suit Hezbollah better because they're very much a weapon of terror with a 900 meter CEP (Circular Error Probable). Scud-B can carry a thickened VX gas chemical warhead. As with a tossed grenade - close is good enough.

In either case, once Israel confirms Hezbollah's possession of Scud missiles and their operational status vice a malicious ruse of inoperable missile shells, an imminent and series of strategic strikes by Israel would be virtually assured. Should these strike occur, as I believe they will, then this will likely become a war of widespread WMD use per Isaiah 17:4-11, followed by a rapid escalation into the fulfillment of Psalm 83, Joshua 13:1-7 and Zechariah 9.

Today we should enjoy the calm before the storm, a storm which lies a hair's breadth distance between the current relative calm and full-scale war.
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  #8  
Old 04-17-2010, 11:06 PM
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Here's the link to the excellent article by Sean Osborne you cut and pasted, Invictus: http://eschatologytoday.blogspot.com...at-of-war.html

I clearly agree with Mr. Osborne that "This is the most egregious violation of UNSCR 1701 to date, . . . "
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  #9  
Old 04-18-2010, 11:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpacemanSpiff View Post
Here's the link to the excellent article by Sean Osborne you cut and pasted, Invictus ...

I clearly agree with Mr. Osborne that "This is the most egregious violation of UNSCR 1701 to date, . . . "
Thank you SpacemanSpiff. By the way... I am Sean Osborne.

I'd have included the direct URL link, but my post count here is too low and as a result I'm unable to post such links.
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Old 04-19-2010, 12:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Invictus View Post
Thank you SpacemanSpiff. By the way... I am Sean Osborne.

I'd have included the direct URL link, but my post count here is too low and as a result I'm unable to post such links.
Nice to meet you, Sean Osborne.

I've been reading you and Doug Haggman at the Northeast Intelligence Network for the better part of a decade. The eschatologytoday site came somewhat as a surprise. (I am assuming the two Sean Osbornes are one and the same.)
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Last edited by SpacemanSpiff; 04-19-2010 at 12:04 AM..
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Old 04-19-2010, 12:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpacemanSpiff View Post
Nice to meet you, Sean Osborne.

I've been reading you and Doug Haggman at the Northeast Intelligence Network for the better part of a decade. The eschatologytoday site came somewhat as a surprise. (I am assuming the two Sean Osbornes are one and the same.)
Nice to meet you as well. Yes, you're correct, there's only one of me.

The Eschatology Today site has been up for just one year now, but I've been studying eschatology for nearly 4 decades longer than NEIN has been around. The two subject matters are now completely interwoven.

Given the events in the Middle East, there's no question in my mind, and convicted of the Ruach HaKodesh as I am, we are the generation Yeshua Mashiach spoke of. The ancient Jewish prophets Asaph, Isaiah, Jeremiah, Joshua, Ezekiel and especially Daniel forewarned of these current and near-future events.
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Old 04-19-2010, 07:46 AM
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I really don't believe that hezbolah will use the SCUD because it will probably FAIL(PAC-3,Arrow) thus it will give the right to IDF to use WMD's i mean chemical weapons maybe G-type.

All what they have now is a psychological influence that's the point of terrorist...they want citizen's to "see" that their government can't protec them.
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Old 04-19-2010, 10:19 AM
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IF the Scud's were delivered to Hezbollah, and IF they are operational then an absolutely critical RED LINE has been crossed and Israel will strike.

This crisis has direct parallels to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 which must be considered at length and in detail by the Arab/Islamic side.

The end result will be catastrophic for the inter-mixed current governments and terrorist proxies of Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria (particularly Damascus), Jordan (Hashemite what?), Saudi (the Royal House of Saud will never be the same), the PA (a permanent One-State Solution), Hamas (Hamas what?) and Egypt (Bye-Bye Sinai) if allowed to continue on the current course.

The political Left whined last time about a "disproportionate response." They ain't seen nothing yet if the Scud's are not removed or dismantled immediately.
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Old 04-19-2010, 11:40 PM
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From the Jerusalem Post:

Quote:
Hizbullah admits receiving Syrian scuds

By JPOST STAFF AND ASSOCIATED PRESS
15/04/2010 14:54

Group accuses Israel of blowing incident out of proportion.

Hizbullah sources confirmed on Thursday that the group had received a shipment of Scud missiles from Syria, the Kuwaiti paper Al-Rai reported.

But the missiles were old and unusable, according to the sources. Hizbullah also accused Israel of blowing the incident out of proportion to provoke a media ruckus.

“Our organization has many surface-to-surface missiles spread across all of Lebanon, in case Israel attacks the country again,” the Hizbullah sources said.

Despite this confirmation of what Jerusalem has been saying for days, the Syrian Foreign Ministry denied the reports, saying Israel was trying to stoke tensions in the region and could be setting the stage for an Israeli “aggression” to avoid Middle East peace requirements.
OK, the evidence is out and even Hezbollah has admitted it.

Not that I have any faith whatsoever in the UN, but nevertheless this should be brought to that body if only to prepare Israel's legal defense when they finally act.

And the US should champion an effort for sanctions on Syria for violating UNSCR 1701--but of course they won't, not with Obama at the helm.

One final thought: Syria's behavior under Bashar Assad has become riskier and more blatant than under his father. In particular, Syria assassinated Lebanonese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, has engaged in nuclear reactor construction in cooperation with Iran and North Korea, has provided Hezbollah with an ****nal of surface-to-surface rockets and anti-aircraft missiles, and now this. While no Saladin, Bashar Assad is clearly a loose and dangerous cannon.
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Old 04-20-2010, 02:24 AM
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well one thing we have learned from cast lead is a proper pr campaign to superceed the inevitable strike on the weapons.
Like spaceman said first to the UN and America
After that like always were on our own,
as we know they will most definitly have these hidden in a civillian area to maximise casualties if there attaked by the air, so its a win lose situation there
I would envisage a ground assault would be out of the question because Barak would be too scared of another failure from his ministry.
perhaps a secret service operation like the ones we have seen in syria before where we hit the weapons with undercover agents etc would be the best option to start.
if one unit was knocked out publicly then it would give us the status quo and justification (we already have it but just to satisfy the lefties) to launch with air power.
either way we cant and Bibi wont sit idly by while our biggest threat in the north aims a gun at our heads.
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Old 04-20-2010, 12:44 PM
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Just imagine... one evening chemical warheads begin landing along a line from Haifa to Tiberias.

Then what can you imagine will have occured by sunrise the next morning?
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Old 04-22-2010, 12:44 AM
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Does anyone think Iran may supplies Hezbollah nuclear weapons put on these Scud Rockets? The last time I check Iran care little about what happens to the civilians of Lebanon. Iran might not think twice about sacrifice them to destroy Israel.
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Old 04-22-2010, 01:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Belkin View Post
Does anyone think Iran may supplies Hezbollah nuclear weapons put on these Scud Rockets?
Well, that is always possible in the future. In general, however, countries don't immediately share nuclear weapons. The US, for example, didn't deploy nuclear weapons to Europe until 1954 (Source: http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/euro/euro_pt1.pdf) and dual-key systems came even later.

But there are already rumors that Hezbollah has been given chemical weapons--see this thread for a discussion: http://www.israelmilitary.net/showthread.php?t=11676

If indeed Hezbollah has chemical weapons, I expect them to be used. While Hezbollah may intend to hold back its chemical weapons, it seems likely that in the heat-of-battle chemical weapons will be either launched accidently, or even purposely by a lower level commander in danger of being over run by Israeli forces.
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Old 04-22-2010, 02:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpacemanSpiff View Post
Well, that is always possible in the future. In general, however, countries don't immediately share nuclear weapons.
If I am not mistaken, only certain variants of Scud are capable of carrying nuclear warheads, and those are tactical nukes, something which Iran/NKo or for that matter even China, India or Pakistan don't possess.
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Old 04-22-2010, 02:07 PM
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If I am not mistaken, only certain variants of Scud are capable of carrying nuclear warheads, and those are tactical nukes, something which Iran/NKo or for that matter even China, India or Pakistan don't possess.
The SS-1C Scud-b variant that Syria possesses is designed to varry 5 to 70kT nuclear, High Explosive or Chenical warheads. This is the same variant that the government of Israel maintains was delivered to Hezbollah. Other un-named Israeli sources say the SS-1e Scud-D variant was delivered. Both variants have identical payload and range characteristics, so which variant was delivered is basically moot except for the improved 50m CEP of the d-variant over the 450m CEP of the b-variant.

Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNW), while hard to define in terms of their explosive yield are technically categorized as ranging from 0.1kT to 1MT. Therefore, 5 to 70kT warheads are precisely the type these missiles were designed to deliver against military targets -- particularly massed ground combat formations, assembly areas, airbases or logistical supply depots.

I actually think Syrian/Hezbollah Scud will be fitted with chemical warheads - a nuked Israel is of no use the the Arabs who covet the land. The objective mission for these Scuds therefore is to ensure defeat the IDF on the battlefield.
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